Bank Rate: 3.75% confirmed

Bank Rate stays at 3.75%. The Bank's committee split six to three, the same way it did in July, with three of the nine again voting to put it up to 4%. Inflation is why it keeps being close: prices were 3.1% higher than a year earlier in August, and the Bank now expects that to reach about 3¾% by the end of this year and a little over 4% early in 2027. For you, nothing moves this month — a tracker or variable mortgage costs what it did in August, and savings rates hold where they are. That last part still has a sting: with easy-access accounts near 4%, a basic-rate taxpayer holding much over £25,000 outside an ISA is paying tax on the interest. The next decision is 5 November, eight days after the Budget.

Three numbers land in three days and they all reach your pocket. Tuesday the 15th: wage growth for May–July, which is one of the two figures that sets April's state pension rise. Wednesday the 16th: August inflation. Thursday the 17th at noon: the Bank Rate decision, which moves what savers are paid and what trackers cost. On the state pension, the triple lock quietly takes whichever is highest of wage growth, September's inflation and 2.5% — nobody announces the winner, but around 4% wage growth would add roughly £500 a year to the full new state pension.

Bank Rate, 17 September: a hold at 3.75% is still the central call, but a rise is now a live risk rather than a tail one. Markets price roughly a one-in-four chance of a move to 4%, July's inflation reading was 2.9%, and the August figure is expected the day before the vote. Also this week: the Treasury's Budget representations portal closes on 9 September, and the Commons rises for conference recess on the 16th, so the Liverpool conference speeches are the next real signal before 28 October.

Bank Rate stays at 3.75% until at least 17 September, when the next decision is announced at noon. July's vote was 6–3 to hold, with the three wanting a rise to 4%.